Viral Load Predicts AIDS Progression

A prospective study of 62 patients found that viral load was
the best marker available for predicting who would progress
to AIDS:

* Those who had a viral load of over 100,000 copies per ml on
their first measurement after seroconversion were more than
ten times as likely to develop AIDS as those who did not,
during the followup time of this study (median somewhat under
five years).

* Blood samples from the 62 patients were saved at six-month
intervals; the viral load test was later run on some of the
samples obtained. Of those who had no samples over 10,000
copies in the first two years after seroconversion, the
proportion developing AIDS was 6% of those whose CD4 (T-
helper) count was under 500, zero for those over 500. But of
those who had one or more sample over 10,000 copies in the
first two years after seroconversion, 86% of those with CD4
under 500 developed AIDS -- as did 45% of those with CD4 over
500.

These findings, from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study
(MACS), were published in Mellors JW, Kingsley LA, Rinaldo
CR, and others, Quantitation of HIV-1 RNA in Plasma Predicts
Outcome after Seroconversion, ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE,
April 15, 1995; volume 122, pages 573-579. The research was
funded in part by the U.S. National Institutes of Health.